In its new housing outlook report, The Concord Group—a real estate strategy firm based in Newport Beach, Calif.— predicts that national home sales will recover by the fourth quarter of 2012, with some specific markets improving by late 2011 or early 2012.
"The Concord Group estimates sales for the next year will continue at current sluggish levels (400,000 units), with a recovery rate of approximately 640,000 units annually in the following year’s first half until the market returns to normalized absorption rates by the fourth quarter of 2012," the report says.
The company says these markets have the strongest long-term growth potential:
- Orange County, Calif.
- San Jose, Calif.
- Washington, D.C.
The Concord Group's housing demand model incorporates published employment forecasts, structural household growth, turnover, and obsolescence.
"Development of quality new housing in core employment centers is expected to be an opportunity," the company says in a statement. "Meeting the needs of baby boomers, highlighted by their transition to urban areas, should remain a focus."
Source: The Concord Group (10/12/2010), REALTOR® Magazine (10/13/2010)